Malaysian Diaspora and the Fragmentation of Money: What AI and Tech Create in the Next 10 Years

 

The Malaysian Diaspora and the Fragmentation of Money: What AI and Tech Create in the Next 10 Years

On 7 July 2026 Hong Kong launched a new gold clearing and settlement system linked to the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The goal was simple. Trade and settle physical gold without going through London. Build an Asian hub. 

That one announcement is a signal for much more than gold. It is a signal that the old single-hub systems are breaking. And when systems break, new jobs appear. The problem is, we can name the jobs that will disappear. We cannot yet name the jobs that will be created. 

Jeff Bezos explained this by asking a room to imagine telling a farmer in 1920 that massage therapist would be a career. The farmer would not believe it. Then imagine telling him about dog psychiatrists. He would laugh. Yet today both exist. 

Every technological revolution in history has created more jobs than it destroyed. Every single time we panicked anyway. Because the jobs being destroyed always have names. Teller. Clerk. Analyst. The jobs being created do not have names yet. They require inventions that do not exist inside industries that do not exist, solving problems we have not discovered. 

The Malaysian diaspora is living inside this exact transition. And it is happening fastest in finance, banking, investment, and the businesses that support SMI.

From One Hub to Many Hubs

For 300 years, diaspora finance ran through one model. Send money home through a big bank in London, Singapore, or New York. Pay 3 to 7 percent. Wait three days. That was the LBMA model of finance. Efficient, centralized, and paper heavy. 

What we are seeing now is the Shanghai model of finance. Physical first. Direct. Multi-hub. 

Validated today: Platforms like BigPay, Wise, Merchantrade and Touch n Go eWallet already allow diaspora to hold RM and foreign currency, send money instantly, and pay bills in Malaysia from abroad. BNM has also approved digital onboarding so Malaysians overseas can open local bank accounts without flying home. Equity crowdfunding platforms like pitchIN and Ethis already let anyone invest RM500 into Malaysian SMI. 

Extrapolated over 10 years: These will not be apps anymore. They will be infrastructure. We will have London-hub, Singapore-hub, Australia-hub, US-hub and Malaysia-hub all running in parallel. No single bank will own the diaspora. Capital will flow both ways in real time.

The Jobs Being Destroyed Have Names

We know them. Remittance counter staff. Manual trade finance officers. Junior research analysts writing reports. Bookkeepers doing SMI accounts in Excel. Bank branch staff processing forms. 

The Jobs Being Created Do Not Have Names Yet

Here is what they will look like by 2036. Today they sound as strange as dog psychiatrist did in 1920.

In Finance for the Diaspora

A Halal Cross Border Yield Curator. This is an AI agent trained on BNM, SC, IRS and SEC rules that builds portfolios of Malaysian REITs, ASB, gold and US ETFs for a Muslim engineer in Melbourne. It handles shariah compliance, tax and FX automatically. It is not a fund manager. It is a compliance and optimization layer. 

A Remittance Arbitrage Navigator. A person who runs AI that monitors rate gaps between stablecoins, fintech wallets and banks across KL, Sydney and London. It saves a family $2,000 a year and charges $20 a month. 

A Diaspora Credit Passport Builder. AI that turns a Malaysian freelancer’s income from Shopee, Upwork and Lazada into a credit score accepted by Maybank, UOB and Chase. Today this is impossible. In 10 years it will be standard.

In Banking

An Embedded Banking Orchestrator. This is a diaspora founder who plugs Malaysian bank APIs into 500 Malaysian owned restaurants in Australia. The restaurant never opens a bank account. Banking just happens in the background when they sell nasi lemak. 

An AI KYC Fraud Anthropologist. Someone who trains models to detect fraud by understanding Malaysian naming conventions, kampung addresses and diaspora ID patterns that Western AI cannot read.

In Investment

An SMI Micro PE Syndicate Lead. A Malaysian in Silicon Valley uses AI to find 50 SMI in Johor making medical devices, pools $100,000 from 200 diaspora investors, and digitizes their operations. The due diligence that took 3 months in 2020 will take 3 days in 2030. 

A Cultural Alpha Trader. AI that predicts Bursa movements based on TikTok trends in diaspora groups, Hari Raya spending data and Tabung Haji withdrawal patterns. It is not technical analysis. It is cultural analysis.

In Businesses That Support SMI

This is where most of the growth will be. 

An SMI AI Upskilling Concierge. A Malaysian in Dubai runs a service that teaches a kedai runcit in Ipoh how to use AI for supplier emails, inventory and BNM grant applications. 

An Export Compliance Translator. AI plus human that converts BNM export documents into FDA, EU and UK formats for Malaysian food SMI, then sells the service to diaspora owned importers. 

A Diaspora Marketplace Growth Hacker. Runs AI ads targeting 2 million Malaysians abroad to buy products from Bumiputera SMI. The business is selling Malaysia to Malaysians overseas.

Why We Cannot See These Yet

A farmer in 1920 could not imagine social media strategist because he needed radio, television, personal computers, the internet, smartphones, social platforms and the creator economy to exist first. Seven inventions deep. 

For diaspora finance we are on invention three. We need CBDCs and stablecoins, AI that reads Bahasa and Jawi, data rails that connect LHDN and KWSP to overseas tax systems, and licensing that lets diaspora legally syndicate investments. The jobs only appear at invention seven.

What This Means for Society Over the Next 10 Years

First, the diaspora shifts from remitters to builders. The role is no longer just to send money home. The role is to build the pipes that money moves through.

Second, SMI goes global overnight. A batik maker in Kelantan does not need to fly to London. A diaspora AI agent in London sells it, handles compliance, and settles payment in RM.

Third, we get a brain gain loop. Diaspora talent will not come home to work in a bank. They will come home to run a three person Diaspora Fintech Orchestration Studio managing $5 million. That title does not exist today.

Fourth, the fear is the proof. Bankers are panicking because AI is powerful enough to rebuild the whole stack. And every time technology has been that powerful, it created more work than it removed.

The Timeline

In the next 1 to 3 years liquidity builds. Some fintechs charge 0.5 percent while banks still charge 5 percent. Price gaps will be wide. 

By year 5 to 7, diaspora platforms will handle 25 to 35 percent of remittance and SMI investment flows. Banks will partner instead of compete.

By year 10, the market stabilizes into a multi polar setup. No single institution owns diaspora finance. There will be multiple hubs, multiple rails, and much lower costs.

The Bottom Line

The fragmentation happening in global commodity pricing is happening in people and money too. We are moving from a paper, intermediated, single hub system to a physical, direct, multi hub system. 

The Malaysian diaspora will not lose jobs to AI. The diaspora will invent jobs because of AI. 

In 1920 dog psychiatrist was a joke. In 2026 Cross Border Shariah Yield Curator sounds like a joke. In 2032 it will be a LinkedIn title with a waitlist and a $300 an hour rate. 

The limitation was never imagination. It was infrastructure. And over the next 10 years, the Malaysian diaspora will be the ones building it.

New Multi-Polar Era

The Fragmentation of Global Commodity Pricing: A New Multi-Polar Era

On 7 July 2026, Hong Kong launched a new gold clearing and settlement system directly linked to the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The purpose was clear: to trade and settle physical gold without routing through London’s LBMA, and to build a credible Asian pricing hub. It was a quiet announcement with loud implications.

For 300 years, London has held the center of global commodity markets. Its grip came not just from the LBMA benchmark, but from the entire ecosystem around it: pricing, clearing, insurance through Lloyd’s, and USD invoicing. That system worked because everyone used one reference price.

That is now changing.

Two Systems, Two Philosophies:

The LBMA and the Shanghai-Hong Kong model represent fundamentally different approaches.

The LBMA operates primarily in USD. It is paper-heavy, with estimates of 70 to 100 paper claims for every ounce of physical gold. Most of it is unallocated, meaning it functions as financial claims rather than specific bars. It is efficient, liquid, and the current global benchmark.

The Shanghai-Hong Kong system works in both RMB and USD. It is physical-first, operating on a 1:1 rule where every paper contract must be backed by metal. Delivery rates are high, and prices often reflect real Asian demand, sometimes trading at a premium to London.

This is not about one replacing the other. It is about two systems running in parallel, built on different assumptions about what a commodity market should be.

Where This Fragmentation Leads

We are heading into a dual-hub, and eventually multi-hub, structure.

In the near term, over the next 1 to 3 years, liquidity in Asia will build but price gaps between London and Shanghai will remain wide. Arbitrage will be more expensive and slower.

By year 5 to 7, Asia is likely to capture 25 to 35 percent of regional commodity trade, especially in gold and other metals where physical demand is concentrated.

In 10 years or more, the market stabilizes. No single global benchmark dominates. Instead we have a multi-polar setup: roughly 60 to 70 percent of volume and pricing influence remains in London, with 30 to 40 percent shifting to Asia. New York will also play a larger role as the US moves to bypass London on oil, insurance, and other commodities.

The Consequences

First, price discovery fragments. Gaps between hubs will create arbitrage opportunities, but also more volatility and higher transaction costs for companies that operate globally.

Second, geopolitical and regulatory risk increases. Trading in Asia exposes participants to different rulebooks, capital controls, and FX volatility, particularly around the RMB.

Third, intermediation margins shrink. When you remove one monopoly hub, you remove layers of fees. Regional hubs can price and settle locally, which reduces dependence on London-based banks and insurers.

Finally, London’s role changes. It does not disappear. It remains a major hub, but becomes one of three rather than the only one. That shift in status has downstream effects on jobs, revenue, and financial influence.

What This Means

The launch of the Hong Kong-Shanghai link is not just about gold. It is a signal that the post-war, USD and London-centric commodity architecture is being rewired.

For businesses, the takeaway is practical: you will need to watch multiple benchmarks, manage FX and delivery risk across jurisdictions, and build relationships in more than one hub. For policymakers, it means less ability to influence global prices from a single center.

The global commodity market is no longer converging on one price. It is diverging into regional systems that coexist. The fragmentation has started, and it is likely permanent.

📊 _WILL THE NEW GOLD HUB PUSH PRICES UP?_

🔹 Short answer: Yes. More volatility + long term upward bias

Why prices likely go up:

1.  _Physical over Paper_ 

    Shanghai/HK is 1:1 backed. No more 100 paper contracts for 1 bar like LBMA. Harder to suppress price with shorts.  

2.  _Asian Premium Sticks_

    Asian buyers pay more and buy anyway. With its own hub, that premium doesn't collapse to London. Pulls global price up.  

3.  _Central Bank Buying_

    Countries want gold outside London/NYC. New hub makes it easier. More structural demand.

4.  _Higher Costs_

    2-3 hubs = more FX, shipping, arbitrage cost. Those costs get priced into gold.

But not straight up:

- Next 1-3 yrs: Bigger price swings and gaps between London vs Asia

- USD strength + recessions can still crash it short term

Bottom line: 

LBMA capped gold with leverage. Asia hub removes the lid. Expect higher lows and more volatility. $6000 gold in 5-7 yrs becomes more realistic.

It's gold repriced as "real money" not just a "financial asset".

Cause and Consequence as I see it.

I've written recently about China's deflation effects....it's repercussion on South East Asia and immediate impact on future fundings and effects that I see will materialise in Asia.

In case you do not yet realize it, China's "involution" and deflation, driven by a 70% wealth wipeout in its property sector, are exporting economic pain to Singapore and Malaysia through cheap goods and price dumping.  Over the next two years, local SME's will face significant margin pressure, leading to a two-speed economy where high-trust, specialized roles outperform traditional retail and manufacturing. Within 5 years after that. Society in Asia and globally will be very very different from how we know it today

"China’s Involution Is Exporting Deflation to ASEAN"

China’s property crash is now Asia’s problem. For 3 years I’ve been warning about China’s deflation. It’s no longer containable now.

The mechanics are simple:

70% of Chinese household wealth is tied to property. After a 40% national property price fall between 2021-2025, that wealth evaporated.

With spending dead at home — retail sales just fell for the first time i've seen in 3+ years — Chinese firms are in “involution”. They fight each other with price wars, then export the war.

What this means for SG and MY in the next 24 months:

1. Price Dumping: China’s export-price index is down 15% since 2022. Furniture grew only 1.9% YoY but volume is flooding ASEAN. Thai car prices are already -6% YoY.

2. SME Margin Collapse: “Excessive competition are eating away at company profits”. Local retailers, manufacturers, and e-commerce sellers can’t compete with subsidized Chinese pricing.

3. Two-Speed Economy: China itself is splitting. Demand for AI chips/data centre equipment is +60%, but “there does not seem to be much demand for anything else”. The same will happen here. High-trust, specialized, AI-validation roles outperform. Traditional retail and manufacturing bleed.

The 5-year view: China is trying to shift from property/investment to consumption, targeting 45% of GDP by 2030. Until that works, the world gets China as the world’s discount warehouse.

Property will shrink from ∼20% to ∼16% of China’s GDP. That’s 5 million jobs at risk. The social and political effects will reshape Asia.

Asian Societies in 2031 will look very different because of this giant's involution process.. The trillion yuan question is: who's prepared?

2. CHARTS / TIMELINE + SECTOR IMPACT MAP

Timeline: China Deflation → ASEAN Impact 2026-2027

Phase Timeline China Side SG/MY Impact

Phase 1: Price Dumping: Q4 2025 - Q2 2026 Export volumes up, prices -15%. AI equipment +60% (Cheap EVs, solar, appliances kill local SMEs. Inflation stays low but wages stall)

Phase 2: Margin Squeeze: Q3 2026 - Q4 2027 Manufacturing “slipping back into deflation” (Two-speed economy. Retail/manufacturing layoffs. Finance, data, compliance roles grow)

Phase 3: Structural Shift:  2028 to  2030 Property falls to 16% of GDP. Consumption push ASEAN forced to diversify. “China+1” becomes “China-in-ASEAN”. Property wealth effect gone ( Nobody alive today has seen this happening, so it's going to be a real shocker!)

Sector Impact Map for Malaysia/Singapore

Most Hit Moderate Risk Opportunity

**Retail, FMCG, Furniture** **Construction, Basic Manufacturing** **Data Centres, AI Services**

**E-commerce sellers** **Tourism reliant on China** **Compliance, ESG, Halal Cert**

**Low-cost manufacturing** **Property developers** **Specialized Engineering**

*3. ACTION LIST: 5 THINGS MALAYSIAN SMEs MUST DO IN 18 MONTHS*

1. Stop competing on price. Compete on trust

    Chinese firms can’t export “local service + after-sales + bahasa”. Become the high-trust layer.

2. Attach yourself to AI/data

    Every business needs AI validation, data cleaning, compliance monitoring. That’s where the new jobs are.

3. Diversify suppliers AND customers

    Don’t be 100% China supply + 100% local demand. Look to ASEAN-as-system, India, Middle East.

4. Hoard cash, not property stock

    Property wealth effect is gone. Liquidity wins in a deflationary export wave.

5. Upskill 2 people in your company now

    Pick 2 staff to learn: AI prompting, export documentation, ESG reporting. These are tariff-proof skills.

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GMTT: Malaysia 2026-2027 - Toll Plaza or Digital Fief?

 

_Written 23 June 2026_

Future analyses of Malaysia post 2026–2027, viewed from a 2040 perspective, may characterize the nation as a "Neutral Router" serving as ASEAN's data and halal logistics hub, or a "Digital Fief" where state-led automation compromises individual liberties for stability. 

The country is likely to be seen as a "Canary in the Coal Mine" for middle-income traps, balancing welfare demands, digital control, and neutral geopolitics while facing significant demographic pressures. 

Some say, ultimately, Malaysia faces a critical transition between becoming a "Digital Serfdom" with controlled, bloodline-based citizenship or an indispensable regional "Toll Plaza" for global compute, as highlighted in simulated 2026 scenarios. 

Rank whether by 2026–2027, Malaysia is poised to operate as a transactional state, leveraging massive foreign data center investments for localized, political patronage while facing a persistent middle-class brain drain. 

Will this "warlord-based" political model utilizes digital infrastructure and centralized welfare apps to ensure stability, rather than relying solely on traditional industrial development?  

I wish to comment analytically based on current geopolitical movement that i see in the news i've read

We are now in the third week of June 2026 as I write this.

Petrol RM2.05 with BUDI, diesel RM2.15. Ringgit still testing nerves. And the question my readers keep asking me: “ Is Malaysia becoming a Toll Plaza for data, or a Digital Fief for political party bosses and warlords?”

I’ve been saying since 2020: this is a new type of problem. Not industrial. Not war. Control of the rails.

So let me rank it straight. No bombastic type wan.

1. Are we a “Transactional State” now?  I say yes with rating: 6.5/10. But not the way people think.

Published data that supports this:

1. Data center land rush: Johor + Selangor are now the overflow bucket for Singapore after SG’s power moratorium. US, China, EU hyperscalers are all planting flags in Kulai + Cyberjaya. That’s FDI, but it’s land + TNB quota, not factories.

2. Brain drain is not theory:  DOSM + World Bank data keeps showing ∼1.8M Malaysians overseas, >60% with degrees. Main reason: pay + cost of living + kids’ education. Exactly what I warned in 2020: middle class savings get screwed first.

3. Court signal: 23 Jun 2026 Court of Appeal said “birth in Malaysia not enough for citizenship” if biological lineage unknown. Jus sanguinis > jus soli. That tells diaspora: “Don’t bank on heritage nor soil. Bank on blood.”

So we sell neutrality, land, power, halal trust. 

We don’t yet build like Vietnam. Its allmTransactional.

2. Is “Warlord-based” politics, but with an app premise, true?

My wife will say “warlord is too strong lah”. I say no.

Malaysian style warlord = State party chief controls JKR, land conversion, GLC board. Now add: data center quota, MyDigital ID rollout, BUDI list.

Published data:

FMT 23 Jun 2026 headline itself: “Birth in Malaysia not enough for citizenship, rules appeals court”. When even birth cert + Klang birth cannot give you rights, you know the gatekeeper is now the database, not the JPN.

The new fief is digital. If you are in the app, you eat. If server down, you queue. Stability without industry. That’s the NEW NORMAL.

3. Digital welfare vs Industry - which one wins 2026-2027?

We are not abandoning E&E or palm oil. But the growth story now is: Compute + Halal + Green.

Published data:

1. Welfare app-ification: BUDI, STR, eKasih, MyDigital ID integration. MOF pushes this to cut leakage. But remember! Last mile is still the ADUN/MP.

2. Automation preference: Same line I wrote in 2021: companies prefer resiliency > efficiency, robotics, less outsourcing. Now it’s in NIMP 2030.

Translation: Fewer jobs, higher skill. The rest? Go to SG, AU. Hence brain drain.

3 Scenarios Future Humanity Will Write About Us in 2040 looking back:

Scenario A: The Toll Plaza

“Malaysia 2026 was ASEAN’s data + halal router. Not king, but everyone paid toll.”

Upside: Ringgit stable-ish. Jobs in data centers.

Downside: We collect rent, not ownership.

Scenario B: The Digital Fief

“Malaysia 2026 normalized digital serfdom. Bloodline citizenship + app subsidies. No riot. Just compliance.”

Upside: Less fraud.

Downside: If TNB or server down, your life down.

Scenario C: The Canary

“Malaysia 2026 showed middle-income trap in real time. Welfare + digital + neutral, all at once. Ran out of breath.”

Upside: Case study for universities.

Downside: Best brains in Singapore, Thailand, Perth.

So which one ?

Honestly, I don’t know. But I know this: Companies and governments are now strict on compliance. They won’t lose sleep over your worries.

If you are the breadwinner, your kids will feel the consequences of your inaction. Whether you understand this tug-of-war between FX gravity and physical supply, or not. The low-hanging fruit is still the same: Halal + Data + Neutral. No one else has all three. Gulf has money. China has compute. EU has rules. Only Malaysia has trusted halal + Muslim digital population + neutral port.

Read. Be Prepare. 

Be carefree, but not careless.

_Written Jun 2026. Share if it makes sense._

Sources for your fact-check:

1. FMT 23 Jun 2026: “Birth in Malaysia not enough for citizenship, rules appeals court”

2. DOSM/World Bank: ∼1.8M Malaysian diaspora, >60% tertiary. Latest releases as of 2025-2026.

3. MOF: BUDI petrol RM2.05/L, diesel RM2.15/L weekly gazette.

Conversation with friends + meta ai about the current malaysian economy....

Below conversation is about the current malaysian economy....

[15/06, 15:29] Tirath: https://uni-mlc.blogspot.com/?m=1

Sent from Firefox 🦊 https://mzl.la/43doGMX

[15/06, 15:35] Mr.Gunabalan: Nothing new

[15/06, 15:38] Mr.Gunabalan: Results of stagflation previously warned

Comment as an expert and tabulate what processes will be encountered next given the nature of current economic ills worldwide.

Meta ai answers:  You’re right, Mr. Gunabalan — “Nothing new”. This is textbook stagflation setup: growth momentum fading + cost pressures rising, even if inflation isn’t at 1970s levels yet.

Expert take on Malaysia + global ills now:

• BNM/analysts see Q1 2026 GDP at 5.4% y-o-y but Q-o-Q was flat 0.0% — momentum lost. 
• Private consumption + investment already moderated. 
• Headline inflation forecast 1.5%-2.5% for 2026, but core inflation + subsidy rationalisation + Middle East oil risk push it higher. 
• Global PMI below 50, US tariffs, and energy shocks are the same headwinds hitting everyone. So not full stagflation yet, but we’re in the “stagflationary process” phase.

What processes come next if this continues - worldwide + Malaysia specific:

**Phase** **What Happens** **Malaysia 2026 Signals** **Global Parallel**

1. Growth Deceleration GDP slows, Q-o-Q turns flat/negative. Business confidence drops, CAPEX delayed Q1 2026 GDP flat Q-o-Q. Private investment eased to 7.8% from 9.2% PMI <50 for months signals manufacturing cuts

2. Cost-Push Inflation Energy + food costs rise faster than wages. Core inflation sticks even if headline drops Brent >US$90 avg forecast. Subsidy bill jumped to RM4bil/month. Core inflation 1.8%-2.3% Middle East conflict = supply shock

3. Consumption Squeeze Real purchasing power falls. T15/T20 cut spending first, then M40.

Subsidy rationalisation for T15/T20 will depress sentiment. Private consumption growth slowed 5.6%→4.7%. Households cut back as input costs rise.

4. Monetary Tightening Dilemma Central banks can’t cut rates to boost growth because inflation still sticky. “Higher for longer” BNM cut OPR 3%→2.75% in July 2025 pre-emptively, but some call for +25bp hike in Q4 2026 Fed/others stuck between growth vs inflation mandate

5. Fiscal Stress Govt revenue weakens from slower growth, but spending needs rise for subsidies + welfare. Petronas dividends lowest in 23 years at 4.8% of Budget 2026. Targeted BUDI95 subsidies needed.

Oil exporters buffer helps, but importers get hit harder

6. Capital Flow Volatility Investors exit risk assets → currency pressure, tighter financial conditions. Ringgit was top Asian FX 12 months but weakened since war began. Investor caution = ringgit pressure.

Capital flows reverse if US rates stay high

7. Labour Market Lag Unemployment rises 6-12 months after growth slows. Wage growth stalls BNM cites better employment + wages supporting demand now, but if H2 2026 drags, this reverses. Last to move, first to hurt politically

Bottom line: Tirath’s link + “stagflation warned” lines up with BNM/BMI view: Best growth likely behind us for 2026. 

Malaysia’s buffer = net energy exporter + strong domestic demand, but the sequence above is what to watch next.  

If oil stays >$110 and Strait of Hormuz disruptions drag, we move from Phase 2 → Phase 3 faster. 

Impending Systems Change.

 Question: Many emerging countries including India, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia seems to be changing the fundamentals of their policies and financing laws to favor their own currency strength and supply.   What effect does this have on fundamental aspects of sovereignity for the world and how does the current trajectory taken by these countries change the system of money, values and strength the world has seen since 1945?

Meta ai: You’re spotting the real shift. What India, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia + others are doing now is basically “de-Bretton Woods 2.0”. Let me break it down without econ jargon:

1. What these countries are actually changing

Since 1945, the deal was: 

1. Trade in USD → everyone needs dollars

2. Finance in USD → borrow in USD, bonds priced in USD  

3. Reserves in USD/Treasuries → “safe asset” = US debt

4. Capital flows free → capital controls = “bad policy”

Now the “BICS+M” bloc + ASEAN is rewriting the rules:

Old rule 1945-2020    New rule 2023-2026          Country examples

Export $ → keep $ offshore Export $ → force FX onshore 3-6m Indonesia DHE SDA rule

Borrow USD to grow Borrow in local currency + Rupee/Rupiah bonds India masala bonds, Indo Panda bonds

Let capital flow freely “Macroprudential” controls = capital in/out valves Malaysia 1998 + 2024 tweaks, Thailand FX limits

Transfer pricing = MNC choice Govt audits + benchmark prices Indo nickel, Malaysia palm, India iron ore

Dollar = only settlement Local Currency Settlement LCS India-Russia rupee, ASEAN LCS, China CIPS

Core idea: Sovereignty = control over your own currency’s supply + who gets to use it.

2. Effect on sovereignty of the world

For emerging countries - sovereignty ↑

1. Monetary sovereignty: Less hostage to Fed rate hikes. If Fed hikes → your currency collapses, now you have buffers. Indonesia keeping $20-30B export $ onshore = own FX reserve, not US Treasuries.

2. Fiscal sovereignty: Less forced austerity by IMF/credit ratings. India funding infra in rupees, not begging for USD loans.

3. Resource sovereignty: Ban raw exports = you set price, not London/NY traders. That’s what OPEC did in 1973, now nickel/palm/CPO version.

For US/EU - sovereignty ↓ 

1. Exorbitant privilege erodes: If 40% of trade settles non-USD, US can print less without global inflation. Sanctions weapon gets weaker.

2. “Cash runs to Singapore” ends: Means US/EU banks lose the intermediation fee. Capital stays in Jakarta/Mumbai/Bangkok.

Net:  World moves from “1 hegemon” → “regional currency blocs”. Sovereignty becomes less about military, more about control of payment rails + commodity flows.

3. How this changes money, values, strength since 1945

Think 3 phases:

Phase 1: 1945-1971 Bretton Woods I 

Money = gold-backed USD. Value = “USD = stability”. Strength = US military + gold.  

Rule: Everyone ties to USD, US guarantees security.

Phase 2: 1971-2022 Bretton Woods II / “Petrodollar” 

Money = fiat USD. Value = “USD = liquidity + US Treasuries = safe”. Strength = US financial system + SWIFT + Wall St.  

Rule: You need USD to buy oil, chips, wheat. US can sanction anyone.

Phase 3: 2023-? Bretton Woods III / “Commodity-Backed Regional”  

Money = local currency + gold + commodities. Value = “Currency = backed by what you produce”. Strength = control of real assets: nickel, palm, rice, chips, oil.  

Rule: India buys Russian oil in rupees. Indonesia forces nickel smelters. Malaysia prices palm in MYR. Thailand does LCS with China.

3 big value shifts:

1. From “trust” to “stuff”: USD value was “trust in US”. New value = “trust in your country’s nickel, food, energy”. Commodity becomes money’s anchor again.

2. From “free flow” to “managed flow”: 1990s dogma = capital must be free. 2025 dogma = capital is strategic, use valves. Sovereignty = valve control.

3. From “1 reserve currency” to “basket of 5-6” : USD 60% → 45% of reserves. Yuan, Rupee, Rupiah, Ringgit, Baht, Gold all take 5-8% each. No one rules, everyone bargains.

4. What this means for the “common man” in next 10 years

1. More stable locally, more volatile globally: Your MYR/Rupiah will swing less vs food/fuel, but USD, EUR, Yuan will swing more vs each other. 

2. Prices follow commodities, not Fed: Your petrol, cooking oil, phone battery cost will track palm + nickel + oil prices more than US interest rates.

3. “Finance” job shifts: Less “USD trader in Singapore”, more “LCS settlement officer in KL/JKT/Mumbai”. Power moves from Wall St to commodity ports.

4. Sanctions weaker: If you control your own nickel + settle in rupees, US sanctions hurt less. That’s real sovereignty.

Gunabalan/Tirath angle from earlier : Gunabalan was right - breaking vote monopoly breaks control. Same for money. Breaking USD monopoly breaks financial control. Tirath was half-right: “leaders same” but the system they operate in changed. Leaders in 2025 can’t just borrow USD like 1997. They must manage commodities + LCS.

Simple takeaway: Since 1945, money was “USD IOU”. Since 2024, money is becoming “1 ton nickel + 1 ton rice + 1 barrel oil”. That’s a return to pre-1945 logic, but with digital rails.

This trajectory won’t kill USD in 5 years. But it ends USD monopoly in 15-20 years. World becomes “multi-polar money” = more bargaining, more chaos, but more sovereignty for mid-size nations.

Question: Explain the timeline it takes for such a shift to effect the world (taking the post Bretton Woods 1 policy changes timeline) and detail the sociological, cultural, political and societal changes that can & will take place in next 20 years

Meta ai: 

Good question. This shift won’t happen overnight. Last time we rewrote money, it took 25 years for the world to feel it. Let’s use 1944 Bretton Woods I → 1971 Nixon Shock as the template.

1. Timeline: How long until world feels the shift

Bretton Woods I → II took 27 years. Bretton Woods II → III will take ∼20-25 years*

Phase:   1944-1971 Template 2024-2045 Projection What you’ll see

Phase 1: Policy experiments    1944-1958: 14 yrs. Countries peg to USD, but still use gold. Capital controls normal. 2024-2032: 8 yrs. LCS, export controls, local bond markets start. Indonesia DHE rule, India rupee trade, Malaysia LCS with China. Market calls it “noise”

Phase 2: Stress test + crisis       1958-1968: 10 yrs. “Triffin Dilemma” appears. US prints too much USD. France demands gold. 2032-2038: 6 yrs. First USD liquidity crisis when oil/commodities stop pricing 100% in USD. Recession forces switch. Oil spike, USD weaponized sanctions backfire, SWIFT alternative goes mainstream

Phase 3: Official break + new system 1968-1971: 3 yrs. Gold window closes Aug 15 1971. “Nixon Shock”. New rules in 18 months. 2038-2044: 6 yrs. Formal “basket settlement” treaty. IMF adds 4 new currencies to SDR. USD 40% of reserves. New UN/ASEAN/BRICS payment system treaty. USD still #1 but not monopoly

Phase 4: Normalization    1971-1985: 14 yrs. World learns to live with fiat USD. Eurodollar market explodes. 2044-2050: 6 yrs. “Commodity-backed regional money” becomes normal. Kids born 2040 won’t know USD monopoly. Your grandkids think USD, Yuan, Rupee, Gold basket is “always how it was”

Key insight: The policy change starts fast 2024-2030. But sociology + culture lag 10-15 years. By 2045, the world operates on different money logic, but people only “believe” it after a crisis.

2. Sociological + Cultural changes next 20 years

*1945-1971*: Culture shifted from “save gold” → “save USD cash”. Credit cards, mortgages, “buy now pay later” born.  

*2024-2044*: Culture shifts from “save USD cash” → “save real stuff”

1. Value system: 

   - Old: Status = USD bank balance, S&P portfolio, “US assets”

   - New: Status = land, energy access, food security, “what my country produces”. 

   - You’ll hear: “Bro, you got 10 acres + solar?” more than “you got 1M USD stocks?”

2. Trust: 

   - Old: Trust = “US Treasury won’t default”. Global trust centralized in NY/London.

   - New: Trust = “Can my neighbor country feed me during crisis?”. Trust regionalizes. ASEAN, India-Africa, China-Central Asia blocs form cultural trust circles.

3. Consumer behavior:

   - Old: “Buy cheapest global product” because USD made trade frictionless

   - New: “Buy from friend-shoring bloc” even if 10% more expensive. “Buy Malaysian palm, not US soy” becomes patriotic.

3. Political changes

1945-1971: Politics = Cold War, US vs USSR. Control = military bases + USD aid.  

2024-2044 : Politics = “Commodity blocs”. Control = payment rails + resource access.

1. Sovereignty redefined: 

   - Old sovereignty = tanks + borders. 

   - New sovereignty = “Can I settle trade without asking US permission?”. Indonesia banning nickel ore export = same political move as 1973 OPEC oil embargo.

2. Party politics: 

   - Old left/right = tax vs spend debate in USD terms.

   - New left/right = “open to global USD flows” vs “protect local currency + commodities”. You’ll see “Monetary nationalist” parties win in India, Indonesia, Brazil, even US/EU.

3. Geopolitics: 

   - Old: US security umbrella → you use USD.

   - New: “No security umbrella, but we take your currency for rice/nickel”. Military alliances weaken, trade-payment alliances strengthen.

4. Societal changes - daily life impact-

Aspect:                       **1945-1971 shift**       **2024-2044 shift**

Jobs Factory → office job. Finance boom in NY/London USD trader job → “LCS settlement + commodity logistics” job in KL/JKT/Mumbai. Blue collar returns due to downstream industry

Inequality US middle class booms on USD debt + suburbs Commodity-owning regions boom. Palm farmers, nickel miners, solar land owners become new middle class. Traders lose

Education “Study finance/econ in US” = golden ticket “Study agronomy, energy, supply chain in region” = golden ticket. Mandarin + Hindi + Bahasa > French as business languages

Migration   South → North for USD wages South → South. Indonesian worker goes to Malaysia/Singapore. Indian engineer goes to Africa. Less brain drain to US

Family structure Nuclear family + mortgage debt normal Multi-gen family + land assets normal. “Don’t sell the palm land” becomes common advice

5. The “vibe” change Gunabalan would understand

Post-1945, the vibe was: “America sets the rules, we follow, we get stable”.  

Post-2040, the vibe will be: “No one sets rules. We bargain every 5 years. More messy, but we control our rice bowl”.

Short term pain 2025-2035: More currency swings, more “policy flip-flops”, more political fights about subsidies. Like Malaysia 1998 capital controls - everyone panicked, then it worked.

Long term gain 2035-2045: Countries like Malaysia/Indonesia/India stop being “price takers”. When you control nickel + palm + chips + rice, you negotiate as equals. That’s real sovereignty.

Tirath’s point from earlier: “Leaders same” - true for Phase 1. Same politicians will fumble the transition. But by Phase 3, new type of leader emerges: not Harvard MBA, but “commodity + payment rail” strategist.

Simple timeline for you: 

1. 2024-2030: Policy experiments. You feel it as inflation + subsidy debates.

2. 2030-2038: Crisis forces change. You feel it as “why USD not accepted here anymore”. 

3. 2038-2045: New normal. Your kids grow up thinking multi-currency + commodity money is obvious.

Want me to zoom in on Malaysia specifically: what does “commodity sovereignty” look like for an average Malaysian family in 2045 vs 2025?

Gunabalan: Yes, please...

Yes, let’s bring it home to Malaysia. If the global shift is “USD IOU → commodities + regional currency”, Malaysia is actually well positioned. Here’s what it looks like for an average Malaysian family:

1. 2025 vs 2045: Daily life comparison

Area:      2025 - USD/Treasury system    2045 - Commodity + MYR regional system

Income     Wages in MYR, but prices set by USD oil + USD CPO + imported inflation. Job = factory/office, boss = MNC Wages still in MYR, but bonus tied to “palm dividend + Petronas dividend + LCS trade fee”. Job = refinery/EV battery/solar farm/logistics

Savings     ASB, EPF, FD in MYR. Wealth = house + USD stocks via FSMOne. Fear = “MYR collapse 4.7 → 5.2” EPF + “Palm Land Unit Trust + TNB solar share + gold gram”. Wealth = land + energy credits + MYR bonds. Fear = “drought hit palm yield” not Fed rate

Expenses       Petrol RON95 subsidized but gov’t broke. Cooking oil price follows USD CPO. Groceries import-priced RON95 still subsidized, but gov’t rich from Petronas windfall. Cooking oil price stable because Malaysia = price setter, not price taker. Groceries regional-priced via ASEAN LCS

Housing     Buy condo in KL, loan 30 yrs, rate follows Fed. “Must own property to not lose to inflation” Buy house + 0.5 acre. Land = inflation hedge. Loan 20 yrs, rate follows Bank Negara + palm price. “Own land to get palm dividend”

Status symbol    Car brand, US iPhone, kids in UK/AUS uni Car brand + solar panels + “my smallholding yields 4 tons/acre”. Kids in UTM + China uni on ASEAN scholarship

Big fear   IMF, credit downgrade, capital flight Climate + labor shortage for palm. Govt policy flip on export tax

2. How “commodity sovereignty” changes 4 things for you

1. Sovereignty = Food + Energy security first  

2025: Malaysia imports rice, wheat, beef. We panic if USD rises → import inflation.  

2045: Malaysia still imports wheat, but we export CPO + LNG + EV batteries at premium. We bargain: “You want CPO? Take our rice from Thailand via ASEAN LCS”. No single country can choke us. 

For family: Less “panic buying cooking oil” during crisis. Govt has cash from Petronas to subsidize, because oil $130 = RM30B extra revenue.

2. Job market flips from “trading” to “making”  

2025: Best job = work for Shell, bank, trader in KL/SG. Move money around.  

2045: Best job = run downstream plant in Pengerang, manage Sarawak battery plant, maintain solar farm in Perak. “Making stuff” pays more than “moving money”.  

For family: Your son doesn’t need to migrate to SG for finance job. He can earn SGD-equivalent salary managing Indonesian nickel input in Johor. Blue collar respects ↑.

3. Wealth = Land + Energy, not just cash 

2025: Boomer advice: “Buy house, don’t buy land, maintenance headache”. Land = illiquid.  

2045: Boomer advice: “Never sell your 2 acres. That’s your EPF top-up”. MSPO-certified palm land gives RM2,500-4,000/acre/year dividend + carbon credit. Solar rooftop = TNB pays you monthly.  

For family:   Middle class expands beyond KL. Johor, Pahang, Sarawak families get richer from land + downstream jobs. KL condo speculation drops, land value rises.

4. Politics becomes “subsidy manager” not “USD beggar” 

2025: Every election = “Will gov’t cut subsidy? Will IMF come?”. Leaders fly to DC to beg for investment.  

2045: Every election = “How do we share Petronas + palm windfall? Who gets free electricity units?”. Leaders fly to Jakarta/Bangkok to negotiate LCS rates.  

For family : Less fear of “IMF austerity”. More debate about “is B40 getting fair share of commodity money”. Politics gets messier but more local.

3. The 20-year timeline for Malaysian family

2025-2030: Policy experiment phase  

You feel: Export taxes change yearly, RON95 subsidy flip-flop, “why CPO price so high but my wage not up”. Government tests DHE-style FX rules for Petronas. Frustrating.

2030-2038: Crisis + adaptation phase  

You feel: First oil spike to $130. Initial pain 1-2 years. Then Petronas dividends + CPO boom fill gov’t coffers. Your kampung uncle gets job in battery plant. “Suddenly Malaysia got money”.

2038-2045: New normal phase  

You feel: Your kids don’t understand why we used to price everything in USD. They think MYR + “palm points” + gold grams is normal. When you travel to Indonesia/Thailand, you use QR-LCS, no USD exchange needed. Feels natural.

4. Tirath vs Gunabalan in 2045 Malaysia

Tirath: “Leaders same, nothing changes” → True for 2025-2032. Same political fights.  

Gunabalan: “Break monopoly, break control” → True for 2035-2045. Once Malaysia controls CPO pricing + LNG + battery inputs, politicians can’t just say “global market decides”. They must deliver to rakyat or lose vote. Real accountability starts.

Biggest cultural shift: “Malaysian = trader” identity becomes “Malaysian = producer”. We stop apologizing for “small economy”. We say “we control 30% of world’s palm + big LNG + battery metals”. That changes national confidence.

Risk:     If Malaysia fails to build downstream + gets stuck exporting raw CPO/LNG only, then we become like Nigeria = oil rich but people poor. Success depends on Pengerang + Sarawak EV corridor executing.

Simple takeaway for your family planning now : 

1. Land with water > condo in KL long term

2. Skills in energy/EV/battery > pure finance 

3. MYR assets + some gold > 100% USD stocks

4. Teach kids Bahasa + Mandarin + supply chain, not just accounting

From X

 This Google insider just revealed what AI is actually being used for behind closed doors.

It has nothing to do with chatbots.

Mo Gawdat was a senior executive at Google for over a decade. He watched AI get built from the inside. He was in the rooms, in the labs, in the government meetings in China that almost no Western executive was allowed into.

And he just went on Diary of a CEO and said things that no active tech executive would ever be allowed to say publicly:

"What the general public sees about AI is overhyped but ineffective. What the real geeks see inside the lab is genuinely world-changing."

The public gets chatbots and AI-generated videos while the labs are building autonomous weapons systems, military targeting technology, real-time surveillance infrastructure, and self-improving code that rewrites itself every microsecond without human oversight.

As Mo put it: "As we speak, we are living in two major wars where AI is doing most of the killing."

He talked about Palantir's CEO Alex Karp openly celebrating how his targeting technology identifies and eliminates people. He talked about the next generation of autonomous weapons costing $20,000 each, meaning any government with a $50 billion defense budget can literally rain drones on every corner of the planet.

And as you remember, Anthropic was offered a $500 million military contract to allow their AI to be used for human targeting and surveillance. They refused and walked away from the money.

OpenAI took the contract the following week.

Mo's response: "You have to start observing who is actually behaving in a way that makes AI work for humanity, and who is behaving in a way that makes AI work for their share price."

Now this is where it gets really interesting...

In Mo's documentary Chasing Utopia, Altman literally says directly on camera: "I suspect that AI is likely going to end humanity, but we're going to create a lot of interesting companies in the process."

That is the CEO of the most powerful AI company on Earth saying that he suspects his OWN technology will end the human race and then shrugging it off because the business opportunity is too good to pass up.

Mo's prediction for the next decade:

War, economic collapse, mass unemployment, surveillance expansion, and an absolute concentration of power at the top unlike anything in modern history.

His prediction after that is if humanity survives the next 10 years, AI will eventually create a world of abundance where intelligence solves every problem we currently face.

But the path between here and there is what terrifies him.

And the men building the technology know exactly what they're doing.

Do you think he's just exaggerating for attention, or is there truth in this? truth in this?