Future not Rosy.

 

Is anyone watching the currency drops across Asia? 

China & Japan both giants of economy are fighting a losing battle with the US dollar's attractive interest rate hikes for investors. 

That will be causing trouble in the horizon for us all. 

Why? Because a rapid drop of the yen and yuan can quickly become a deadweight for other regional currencies. We are all linked that way, unfortunately.

Todate, the yuan and yen are both tumbling, while other Asian nations are digging deep into their limited foreign-exchange reserves....  )i remember writing these same words years earlier, suddenly!)

End result was...We came out of those problems badly everytime as our ringgit kept losing value everytime these issues come up, even though as a nation, we make a lot of money through commodity and oil/ gas sales to the world but our money still is never strong enough!

For the poor, that means both husband and wife has to work way past their retirement age to just survive medical and health costs.

For the middle class and upper middle class, it means higher lost opportunity in coming decades.

You see, the renminbi and yen are big anchors that we are linked to, and their weakness risks destabilizing currencies for trade and investments in Asia and as it is, we’re already heading toward global financial crisis levels of stress in some aspects, but if these currency problems persist into CNY 2023, then the next logical step would be a Asian financial crisis ( if currency market losses deepen). And that happens easily as more investors pull out their money from our markets as interest rates in America looks so much better now. So, less money demand means less value lah.

But why does the gravitational pull of China and Japan currency effect us?  Because we are linked in trade & the sheer influence of their economies and trade relationships means their strength is our strength....or vice versa.

China has been the largest trading partner of Southeast Asian nations for 13 straight years, according to a Chinese government statement. 

Japan, the world’s third-biggest economy, is a major exporter of manufacturing tech transfer, capital and credit. 

Again, i repeat...the tumble in the currencies of the region’s two largest economies may swell into a full-fledged Asian Financial crisis if it spooks overseas funds into pulling money out of Asia as a whole, leading to massive capital flight.  

Ohhh...i can feel a major headache coming my way already!

Big Headache coming

So what happens at that point that we should be worried about?  Well, the declines in asian currency values may set off a vicious cycle of competitive price war or devaluations and lead to a slide in demand and consumer confidence. That, my dearies, is a Big Threat to our growth & even personal savings worth.

Beijing and Tokyo’s heft is even more pronounced in financial markets. The yuan makes up more than a quarter of the weighting of Asian currency indexes, the yen is the third-most-traded global currency, so its weakness has had an outsized impact on its Asian counterparts. 

The rising potential for spillover between the two largest regional currencies and their smaller peers can be seen in the fact they are moving in ever closer alignment as the dollar surges. What that means is shit is already happening. We just have'nt felt the consequence yet as markets effect is normally 6 months down the road.

The threat of a spillover has become even more severe as currency declines accelerate. The yen tumbled passed 145 per dollar for the first time in more than two decades Thursday after US-Japan monetary policy divergence widened further when the Fed raised interest rates for a fifth straight meeting the day before. 

The yen retraced some of its losses after the authorities intervened but few see the action as doing anything other than slowing its inevitable decline. Specific levels such as the yen at 150 may bring on turmoil on the scale of the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

In short....in my opinion Currency risk has always been a bigger threat for Asian nations than interest rates, because at the end of the day, we save and save, but such problems that have nothing to do with us personally, eat away our currencies worth or savings value without even a warning!

Haram jadah betul!

We call it deflation in other words but this is not understood by most.

Remember also, that somehow all our jobs and business here in Asia is related to export markets and in southeast Asia , we are all exporters and thus we could see a reprise of 1997 or 1998 financial crisis and a crisis of confidence soon (without the massive collateral damage) as supply chain issues, demand destruction issues due to inflation and war, reduce consumption patterns world wide....

Again, this effects mostly workers, wage earners and civil servants as they are the ones with middle class expectations and hopes. 

Have our economic experts considered what is the scenario if the US Fed raises it's interest to 4.5 to 5.0%?

And the multi-national manufacturers move their new investments to the US to gain tax benefits from the latest US Domestic product Incentives act passed by the Biden Administration and US Congress?

Haaissh, now where did I put that panadol ?

                                                                 ♤♤♤♤♤♤♤♤♤♤

Videos of mookatha thai Steamboat BBQ

 

Makan time with Sisters in Melaka.

 

https://www.thesundaily.my/local/our-education-system-needs-overhaul-XD9764752

Gunabalan says: 

I say man, the PM and his Cabinet has spoken that only Bahasa Melayu is to be used in the country and elsewhere.  This businessman is lamenting because with the new BM ruling, there will be less students for his University lah.  Less profits.

 But seriously, imho...should be within 3 years....before we see class stratisfication due to lack of current education needs and general comprehension about nature of geo politics develop into full blown generational curse amongst the hoi polloi &  B60s...in malaysia.

And as these kids start their families, mature and age, they will be perfect foot soldiers of right wing theocracy / anarchists....starting with GE 15.

Singapore, Thailand sees this & is worried too...the beggar thy neighbour syndrome is never a good fence & their remedial actions would be interesting fodder for thought as CIA joint concern over control & access to shipping lane in their effort to control Chinese supply chain esp for oil & gas through the Melaka straits starts gaining momentum.  Peninsular Malaysia can be akin to Panama and Latin America circa 1970s.

This current govt's language policy fiasco will take roughly 3 years to bear its poisoned fruit. Add to that as the current Matured and Aged civil servants leave, all new kaki tangan will naturally grow up in cocooned world that does not use the businessworld's lingua franca. That should mean a time frame of 10 years minimum going forward for such a civil service group to completely flounder and see english as a language barrier rather than boon.

Interestingly and sadly, not much is being done nor an effort being made, (as far as we can read).....to  publicise the thoughts and soul searching writings of the presently aged 20 to 30 thinking or evaluating on their todays' and their tomorrow's.

Summary of Gunabalan's macro economy view 2022 end August.

It’s been a lack lustered time for our local bursa / financial markets after the euphoria of a bullish commodity and manufacturing E & E boom these past 2 years— more or less, a series of mostly up beat economic data provided by the govt gave hope and led local investors to think they can ride the markets upstream, but over the last weeks or so, they’re becoming less convinced of that view given the global inflation data uptick and opinion that we are caught in a prolonged global inflationary spiral.

In my view, a mild recession in the west, is not going to eliminate the trillions of dollars the US of A printed last 2 years, which is still sloshing around in the world in search of interest and return on investments (not withstanding the underground black market for currencies and currencies printed by other countries); the current supply chain fiasco and worker shortages nor will it tilt the balance of power back to capital as in previous days....so bosses beware!

The coming stagflation that we said will happen in a prolonged inflationary environment will not only hit the Western nations first due to the Russian Gas shutoffs but also cause a massive industrial output drop as a consequence of  lower power usage by industry in Germany, France and Britain ....not to mention in China and Japan and Korea due to western sanctions and climate disruptions + covid resurgence.

Remember that along with inflation risks to the people, such environments also forment citizens' uprising against perceived bad policy which means that politically at least, current governments globally will be at risk of being thrown out by the much suffering people.....which basically means long term chaotic social, political world.... and basically a global environment that is seen as not stable and not conducive to business which ......reduces new investments ....which means wages and consumption will reduce globally in coming days as well.....and we in Asean are exporting countries whose entire economies depend on high consuming patterns by our western and chinese partners.

So, what must be done immediately since we know of these issues? 

Thats exactly it. The elites knows the solution is lesser sanctions, lesser regionalism, and more secure supply chain movements or in a nut shell, to revert back to globalisation but they will not do it...not so soon, at least, as it does not fit their plans to depopulate the high global population and reduce the excessive printed money sloshing around the world.

This situational we face today globally is a political mindset perpetuated by the elites that control global Central banks actions through the Bank Of International Settlement. (Which is the central bank of central banks world wide...or the unelected power above all others!)

Nations and democratically elected governments cannot stand in the way of these structural shifts, such as deglobalization, climate change and wartime economics.

Indeed, I've said it before...we live in interesting times.

Through my lens, i tend to see a global macro view and in my eyes, a new macro supercycle is emerging. This supercycle in inflation and interest rates is ultimately about ‘power’ and control over technology, commodities and rare earth minerals needed by said technology... and surprisingly, the balance of power seems to be shifting .... and that power is not only swinging to labor, but to the Chinese + Russian + Indian states .. . ..even if rate hikes and imported inflation from the US of A and other western central banks tip the global economy into a recession in coming days.

What does that mean to us here in Malaysia? 

Personally, i see an Extra burden on the young and middle aged, as the small working population helping the rest of their larger, aging families slowly takes on more weightage in coming years.

What do i mean, you ask?

Well, in Malaysia around 16.43 million people, or 68.9% of the working age population, have no formal or regular pension cover. This includes 7.26 million people outside of the labour force, 680,000 people unemployed, 4.28 million underemployed in informal sectors, and 4.26 million in formal employment but without regular pension savings.

Taken together, around 87% of the working age population here have inadequate cover. 

Now how many of the above do you think can actually afford insurance, health cover for emergency or to pay for serious diseases like high blood pressure and diabetes? Luckily got General Hospital, right?

Of course, then we need to look at numbers of elderly here....there are already 3.6 million people over 60 years old, most in retirement, and an estimated 2.6 million with inadequate cover i.e insurance et al, bringing a total of 69.4% of the adult population facing or living either in poverty or depending on children in old age.

Scary, isn't it?

Now, for the markets and investors....in the short term, there will be frustration for both bulls and bears, with further gyrations in both bonds and stocks as the inflation/deflation pendulum swings.

Ultimately, though, long-term interest rates are going to be higher, and central banks will be fighting to keep inflation below 3%, not below their current stated 2% targets.

In malaysian and regional asia context, that means further devaluation of currencies value in coming days and higher cost of living thus making bigger numbers of families enter the B 60 category from maybe middle class position today.

When that happens, a decade of lost opportunity syndrome will hit the coming generation as was the case in malaysia in the 1970s and 1980s through lower standards of education (careers & future promotions aspects are based on certificates and degrees, remember?)

With secularly higher interest rates, investors and companies will no longer be able to  rely on banks, money markets and angel investors to borrow money because the continuous re-rating of all other asset classes, especially  due to the chaos of unstabil governments and business logistics as well as poor returns on long-duration equities such as tech & oil and gas, commodity stocks will cause higher risk on investments.

The mid 2020s will demand a more discerning approach to asset allocation thus in the initial and enterim periods (of today's) big infrastructural spending and investments in new tech to streamline more productions and retail business will suffer.

The beneficiaries will be companies with tangible assets — the real economy, in food production, in cash, gold and other commodities... so to speak. Services will not be badly effected but they no longer will be drivers of the economy until inflation plateaus in most countries. The key to all this will be each central banks ability to not just control the fall in currency values but also the control of input prices and imported inflation.

So, in summary, we will see a high-pressure near future economy (i.e. 5 years or so) where there’s a scarcity premium on commodified real physical assets, uncertainty about future returns and less benefit to financial engineering.

Remember that in an era of deglobalization, intangible assets will lose their allure. 

So, things like patek phillip watches, Art pieces with heavy insurance and such variables will do well.  Investors should also seek exposure to ‘tangibles’, such as commodities, real estate and many traditional ‘value’ parts of the equity market, which are likely to gain from this transition,” 

'Nuff said.

A reply to Cikgu Pierelal on a whatsapp he sent to me!

Hahaha....you just set me off to read up on :

Topography of Indian Cultural Assimilation since 11000 years ago.

Interesting facts on Indo aryan cultural homogeiny (For context, the Mahabharata and story of Kurushetra war  was said to be roughly 5000 years ago).

Sources:

Ancient Persian (Zoroastrian) influence on Hinduism

Proto-Indo-Iranian religion - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Asuras and Daevas the Indo Iranian Connection

Hinduism and Zoroastrianism A Comparison

Ahura - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Daeva - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Indra - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

4 In Zoroastrianism

The Development of Hinduism

Prelude:

You cannot contest the fact that geographically Indians & indian culture were in Iran, Afghan & lower Turkmenistan ( western areas) & as far as Burma and Cambodia in Eastern parts since 15000 years ago.

So, what is definition of indo aryan if not geography and culture?

Mahabarat itself writes mlecchas were friends from Afghan areas...and that was 5000 years ago. So, linguistic and cultural disparity apart, faiths and beliefs followed the people... which is where you see the assimilation between religious beliefs and gods pre christian times....albeit with nuances the further you go away from indian continent

Just to be precise...i am encapsulating beliefs of pre Rig veda gods within known kingdoms of India, mainly kingdoms on the whole stretch between the Sindhu and the Mediterranean Sea, starting with the kingdoms of ancient Sumeria, Mesopotamia, Assyria (Asur), Greek Anatolia, Persia as well as modern Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

This summary of mine ( with quotes and excepts taken from Internet) is current accepted extent of Indian society throughout their 11000 year history and thus once you know that...you realise that topography of pre christian Indian subcontinent and their societies extends well beyond the modern day border....

With such gained knowledge of geography, you would also appreciate and understand the differing norms and culture.  With that, comes knowledge of language assimilation and growth i.e. how differing cultures expounds its belief system and fundamental faith axis. Combine that knowledge with the vast time frames of different societal epochs, eras and governance....and you will understand the big picture evolution of Sanatana dharma.

For instance , even between Tamils and Sindhi area there are differing gods...not to say more about areas between Nepal and Upper & Lower Egypt....are you aware archeologist have uncovered ancient Sivan temples in Egypt, Libya, and Sudanese borders, or that Tamil elam gods like Sivan+ Mugan created the cult of Murugan (Amen+ Hop Amen in Egypt)- these gods are Tamilan god not pre Rig Veda Hindu gods & furthermore, the Sumerian gods are Tamils gods, not Hindu gods,  with the difference that the Indian gods were born in India, but Sumerian god born in ancient Egypt!

All human construct. Bukan saya cakap tau....ini historical fact... bukan max mueller made or inspired. The simple reality of Faiths in conjunction with Time, across distance and age is what made these cultural assimilations powerful beliefs within those societies mentione above. 

At this point, one must Remember that in Vedas only the supreme godhead or ParaBrahman is GOD. The rest are his manifestations/concept of Aham Brahmasmi. It is written in puranas and the itihisas that our reality is created (maya) and many such creations exists (multi universe or parellel universes) and more importantly each universe has its own brahma, vishnu and sivan!

Bayangkan...

Considering the history and latest archeological evidence there are 6 pre-dominant civilizations bloomed in different part of the world at a same time . considering India in oldest rest 5 are almost same age:

• India ( Sindhu Civilization)
• Egypt
• Greek & Roman
• China
• Mayan
• Sumerian ( Mesopotamia ).

The wonderful fact is they all were interconnected and exchanged their knowledge and shared this wealth of knowledge to enrich each successive generational epoch with assimilated lore. 

How can I say this? 

Well, even in Mahabharata, the greek and Egyptian participated in Kurushetra war and its been documented ie their numbers, days involved and names of those involved . If you do a thorough study will find a amazing similarity of the gods and their work in these civilization. You can also see the similarity in architecture / Structure / Monuments / Astro-Knowledge / Farming Knowledge and more …

Knowledge is key to freedom from simple Beliefs, religious dogma, rituals & worship...semuanya very interrelated.....though i confess, we as frail emotional humans need those structures to fortify the daily onslaughts in emotions and fear we all go through. So, yes...it was necessary for society and the fore fathers were right to have the lore.

Now, to revert.....In particular, i was reading up on Mithra (which was a religion allowed only to be practised by males) as it was intriquing to me how in Rig Veda and in Persia, same god name existed. 

• Mithra was a solar deity, derives itself from Indo-Iranian solar deity Mithra, which cognates with Vedic solar deity Mitra. 
• Mitra means "carrier of the sacred bond", nowadays used as "friend".
• Mitra was a very important Vedic Deity in Vedic times, it is not known to many people but Mitra is the 3rd most important deity in Vedas. 
• Mitra is mentioned 435 in Rig Veda while Vishnu is just mentioned 3 times. 
• Mitra is the first of the Adityas, the primordial solar deities.
• Mitra is understood as someone who keeps the balance, who is the protector of the cosmic law (Rta). While the one who pervades this universe is Mitra's Twin - Varuna.

Some people think that Mitra is a Zoroastrian deity. But actually it is pre-Zoroastrian. Zoroaster introduced monotheism, but had to accept older gods as well, so he venerated Mithra as well.

We know this is in their holy book - The Avesta, because it has Mihr Yasht passages dedicated to Mithra.(Mithra in later persian is Mihir, many Indians and Zoroastrians have this name).

But the concept of Mithra got a lot of popularity with Darius, Cyrus and Xerxes. Their kingdoms expanded so did the concept of Mithra. With Anatolia becoming the centre of Mithra worship.  There it mingled with the cult of Dionysus. As we know,when Greece fell and Rome expanded, Roman pantheon started to grow, they started including every local God in their list, that is the time when Mithra took the spotlight in the European scheme of things. That was the birthplace of very much politicized/publicized Mithraism, which was one of the many cults that existed at that time in the Roman Empire.

Few years later, Rome fell, teachings of a new religion known as Christianity took remnants of Mithraism for some myth support.  Christianity has taken a lot of elements from lot of cultures.  And that is true for "every" single religion that exists in the world today. 

Tetapi my dear readers' surprisingly, there was a linguistic difference between the indo aryans and vedic ganges groups in basic terminology between gods  &  demons. In Ancient Persia Ahura meant good diety and Daeva meant false gods. In India (amongst Hindus) asura means evil, while deva means god. 

Is this mere coincidence or was there a clash of civilizations? 

Atau, were we humans the creators of Gods and their powers/ names?😄

From the historical bacaan , it looks likely lah, kerana purely from an etymological perspective, the (probably) intuitive ancient meanings of these words should be roughly “a celestial” in the case of daywás and “a life-giver” in the case of hásuras.

As far as we can say, among Proto-Indo-Iranians, daywás was likely a basic and generic term simply meaning “god/deity”, applicable to all deities. 

Hásuras was likely in contrast a more specific title for only some of the daywáses (“deities”), it referred particularly to the reigning, high-ranking or powerful ones among the daywáses. 

To put it simply, hásurases were “the higher ones among daywáses”, also understandable as “lords among the gods”. All hásurases were also daywáses, but not all daywáses were hásurases (only the higher ones were).

Ini macam mau lawan tokeh aje,kan?..... we normally think of linguistic and cultural difference between north south east and west of current Indian continent but imagine an india that stretches all the way to Afghanistan in west and Burma in East.

The mind boggles!

The basic fact is that ancient Indo-Aryans and ancient Iranians descended from two subgroups of originally the same people nicknamed Proto-Indo-Iranians and both inherited numerous originally identical or closely related linguistic, religious, mythological, cultural and other features. More distantly, they also shared some relations with old European traditions via their common more ancient ethnolinguistic ancestors Proto-Indo-Europeans. 

But the divergence between traditions was commonly increasing during time in certain respects. From such developments we ultimately got the Vedic and the Avestan textual materials which represent the only relatively complexly-surviving oldest Indo-Aryan and Iranic traditions, although not the sole Indo-Aryan nor Iranic traditions (or their interpretations) which existed in that time.

Both terms deva/daeva and asura/ahura had Proto-Indo-Iranic predecessors (generally reconstructed as daywás and hásuras) and even already Proto-Indo-European ancestors (generally reconstructed as deywós and h₂ń̥suros). 

We therefore can, with a certain level of probability, try to reconstruct what was the usage of these words in pre-Vedic and pre-Avestan times. From the historical purely etymological perspective, the probably intuitive ancient meanings of these words should be roughly “a celestial” in the case of daywás and “a life-giver” in the case of hásuras.

The usage exactly like this we have attested among the related ancient Germanic peoples, especially among the Old Norse which left relatively many religio-mythological materials. Among the Old Norse, tívar (a cognate to devas/daevas) was typically used as one of the generic terms for any “deities”. In contrast, æsir (a cognate to asuras/ahuras) referred predominantly to a specific subgroup of tívar, particularly to members of the chief tribe of deities like Odin, Thor or Baldr, the lords of Asgard. (A little different, but related usage of the cognate to asura/ahura existed among Indo-European Hittites where ḫaššu evolved predominantly into the term for “a ruler/a king” in the sense of a sacral monarch who decides over the life and death of his subjects.)

A usage relatively similar to the prehistoric one is still implied also by some earliest Hindu verses of the Rigveda. For example, where one god, Varuna in this case, is identifed as Asura (Lord) who is a sovereign over other gods (devas) and over mortals):

“Thou over all, O Varuṇa, art Sovran,

be they devas, Asura! or be they mortals.

Grant unto us to see a hundred autumns

ours be the blest long lives of our forefathers.”

(Rigveda 2:27:10)

Or here where two gods are identified as “Asuras of devas”, i. e. Lords of the gods:

WITH hymns I call you, when the Sun hath risen, Mitra, and Varuṇa whose thoughts are holy, Whose Power Divine, supreme and everlasting, comes with good heed at each man's supplication. For they are Asuras of devas, the friendly make, both of you, our lands exceeding fruitful. May we obtain you, Varuṇa and Mitra, wherever Heaven and Earth and days may bless us.

(Rigveda 7:65:1–2)

For some reason, both Vedic and Avestan peoples deviated in their usage of the terms from the Proto-Indo-Iranic people, but each of them in a different way; the only thing which both their developments had in common was that both differentiated asuras/ahuras and devas/daevas into two separate groups in contrast to the earlier usage where asuras/ahuras were a subgroup of devas/daevas.

The Vedic tradition retained deva as the common term for a deity but asura, the former term for a higher deity, gradually became a term for “a disagreeable dark titan” who is not deva. This shift in usage was, as far as we can say, not associated with a clear demonization of any formerly worshipped Indo-Iranic holy beings, neither Indo-Aryan like Varuna or Mitra, who simply continued as devas, nor Iranic because no distinctly Zoroastrian holy beings like Mazda, Sraosha or any other are named among the later Hindu negative asuras.

The Avestan tradition on the other hand perceived the ahuras as a group of holy powerful life-forces, which so far quite corresponds to the traditional Proto-Indo-Iranic understanding, yet now seen as entirely separate from daevas who came to be understood as dark supernaturals of opposite characteristics. Apart of the demonization of the term daevas, also several Indo-Iranic deities themselves, like Indra or Nasatya, were demonized, so the change was unlike the Vedic one observably more than just semantic.

This is where cultural assimilation met ego, i believe. ....or maybe caste😄

The only thing which is quite obvious is that ultimately both Vedic and Avestan peoples deviated from the typical Proto-Indo-Iranic usage, each in their own way....

Tapi, when talking anout afghan and persia, saya pikir we must include Iran & Irag geographical areas as well in our readings.  

First of all, ancient Persians and Iranians are amalgamation of different tribes. Avesta is the oldest text of Zoroastrianism. 

It is well known that there are significant similarities in the words and grammar of Avestan and Vedic Sanskrit languages. 

Lu tau tak, the avesta mentions Mithra, Varuna, Indra, Yama etc? 

Jadi, about 11000 years ago civilizations and societies were advanced enough to not just borrow information from each other ( without a standard form of writing , i might add) & dwelve into aspects of psychology, architecture,  maths and algebra, but they also knew how to measure solscitus and plan their planting seasons in tandem with moon phases...all of which reqquired hard mathematical propositions!

Mak ooi.....

• Lagi satu, the Gathas of Avesta mention Rudra along with Angra Mainyu. 
• Vedic and post Vedic sources indicate that the Asuras also performed Yajnas. 
• Gopatha Brahmana refers to Asuraveda of Pratichyas (westerners) and Asita Dhānvan, an Asura Rishi. 
• Asita is also mentioned in Avesta. Shānkhāyana Shrautasutra mentions about Asuravidyā. 
• Evidently, the Asuras compiled their own Veda for performing rituals. 
• The same Asuraveda came to be known as Avesta. Unfortunately, a major portion of Avesta text is now lost.

Inilah sebab why men must not kill each other.....because the lost of knowledge gained can transcend umpteen generations before by some magic it picks up again in the brains of other future born humans....

So, to revert....many Vedic Rishis taught Vedic sciences to Asuras. Sukracharya, a famous Guru of Asuras was known as Kavi or Kava Us or Kaikaus in Zoroastrianism. Sukracharya was the son of Kavi. He was referred to as Ushanas Kāvya in Rigveda Anukramani. 

The Asuras evolved archaic Avestan Sanskrit (Vedic Sanskrit of Asuras) based on their own grammar from Proto Sanskrit language. Thus, Vedic Sanskrit and archaic Avestan Sanskrit have been artificially evolved by the learned people. 

The common people of Asura community spoke Proto Iranian that was naturally evolved from Proto Sanskrit. 

It appears that the early Asuras had settled in Gandhara region on the banks of Helmand River. It is striking to observe that that present-day Hindus worship the devas as gods and the asuras as demons, while in present-day Zoroastrianism this dichotomy is reversed. 

Rig Veda mentions that asuras were "older Gods". While Zoroaster in Gathas suggest them as true gods. The oldest sacred texts of both religions have a similar grammar, structure and Style, and they share same words and phrases.

Vedas also mention Tribes like Parasika, Parshu, Pahlavas, Saka etc., who resided west of the sapta sindhu region. Rig Veda mentions the victory of King Sudas over 10 different tribes which might have pushed the ancient Persians more westwards.

According to Vedic legends, Sarama Devashuni met Panis, a business clan of Asuras on the banks of Rasa River. Most probably, Rasa River was Helmand River of Afghanistan. King Bahlika (Kuru dynasty) and King Gandhara (Druhyu dynasty) conquered northern and southern Afghanistan respectively and established their kingdoms around 11100-11000 BCE. 

The Asuras had no other option to migrate further westwards. They settled in Iran, Iraq,Syria and Southern Anatolia. The Pani Asuras (known as Phoenicians in the west) migrated up to Atlantic Ocean and a group of Panis might have founded the city of Atlantis which was submerged by sea around 10000 BCE. 

When the monsoons weakened after 11000 BCE, many groups of Danavas had also migrated up to Greece and the Druhyus had migrated to Sumeria and Syria. It appears that the early Zoroastrianism of Asuras was extended from Iran to Southern Anatolia.

Seemingly, there were at least two Zoroasters. 

The first Zarathustra also known as Asha Zarathustra or Zarathushtra Spitama was the author of Gathas and Yasna Haptanghaiti of Avesta. Ancient Greek sources also refer to two Zoroasters. Hermodorus (10th century BCE) believed that Zoroaster I lived 5000 years before the date of Trojan war (1842 BCE). Eudoxus also placed Zoroaster I 6000 years before the lifetime of Plato (11th century BCE).

Evidently, Zarathushtra I flourished around ~7100-7000 BCE and authored Gathas and Yasna Haptanghaiti of Avesta and recompiled Avesta. Zarathushtra I was like a Veda Vyasa of Zoroastrianism. 

He transformed Zoroastrianism into Monotheism and founded the basic tenets of Zoroastrian philosophy. 

This is how an Asuraveda transformed into Avesta and Zoroastrianism around 7000 BCE. Interestingly, Zoroastrianism accepted the Indian concept of Mahayuga of 12000 years that evolved after the Ramayana era!

 Zoroastrianism followed equal length of four Yugas (3000 years of each Yuga) Instead of the differential duration (4:3:2:1) of four Yugas.

The Danavas of the post Vedic era were the worshippers of Vedic devatas like Mitra, Varuna, etc. The common people from Afghanistan to East Europe prominently worshipped God Mithra. Gradually, Mithra became synonymous to Surya (Sun). Zarathushtra I’s monotheism also influenced the philosophy of the Mithra god worshippers of East Europe. 

Thus, The Mithraism was born in East Europe and became a popular religion before the birth of Christianity. The Mithraism had been meticulously destroyed and wiped out by the Christian faith patronized by the authoritarian kings.

Again, gua pikir religions fluorishes because the kings popularise the belief system to control the population...

Probably, many Indian families of Baluchistan and Gandhara had also migrated to Sumeria, Babylon, Egypt around 11000 BCE. 

Puranas indicates that the sons of Prachetas, a descendant of the Druhyu dynasty migrated to west and became the kings of Mleccha countries.

Sumerians and Egyptians also followed the Yuga of 432000 years. 

A group of Babylonians came under the influence of Zoroastrianism who evolved the philosophy of Judaism.

The Yavanas and Bactrians of northern Afghanistan and Turkmenistan learnt the Surya Siddhanta of Mayasura (6778 BCE) and evolved the Yavana Siddhanta under the influence of Surya Siddhanta. 

Many families of Yavanas living in Bactria and Gandhara had migrated to Greece and western Anatolia around 6500-5000 BCE and came to be known “Ionians” and “Javans”.

Seemingly, Zoroastrianism was declined around 3000-1300 BCE due to the political rise of Egypt, Sumeria-Babylonia and Assyria. 

Persia was under the rule of Sumerians and Babylonians around 3000-1700 BCE. The rising Buddhism also posed a great challenge to Zoroastrianism around 1800-1300 BCE. The later Kayanian dynasty was reigning over Persia around 1300 BCE. 

Zoroaster II was born in Magha country (North Bactria, North Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) around 1307 BCE and revived Zoroastrianism. Since Magha was the birthplace of Zoroaster II, Zoroastrianism also came to be known as Maghism. Maghism or Later Zoroastrianism accepted the solar calendar and started celebrating Navroj. 

Kayanian king Gustaspa declared Zoroastrianism as the state religion. Acheamenids and Sasanians promoted Zoroastrianism. Unfortunately, the Zoroastrians of Iran and Turkmenistan had no other option to surrender to the Islamic invaders. 

Pheew...penat ready...kita stop sini dulu ye...

The next Crisis.

Recession is in the air.... latest news is German economy stagnates in 2nd quarter.

German inflation has hit 8.5% as food prices jump. On top of that, even more pressing is the Energy crisis they will be facing in coming winter days. There will be blood in the streets in coming days, if this stupid economic war of sanctions between Nato and  Russia is not properly managed and stopped immediately.

The German city of Hanover has turned off the heating and switched to cold showers in all public buildings because of the Russian gas crisis. It's the first big city to turn off the hot water after Russia dramatically reduced Germany's gas supply.

Germans have been told to expect sweeping gas reduction measures and extra charges on their energy bills.  And the EU has agreed to lower demand for Russian gas this winter by 15%.  The policy is in line with announcements from Berlin last week, as Germany races to build up its reserves ahead of the winter. 

Other cities - such as Augsburg in Bavaria - have already introduced their own measures such as turning off public fountains. The 15% reduction target in Hanover matches the EU-wide goal to reduce reliance on Russian gas.

And on Thursday, Germany confirmed that a planned gas surcharge on customers could be much higher than previously expected, to try to ensure energy companies do not go bankrupt in the coming months. 

And all this is just in one country within the Eurozone. 

Annual consumer price inflation across the 19-member euro area hit a fresh record high of 8.1% in May 2022.

Given Europe’s proximity to the war in Ukraine, energy  and trade interdependence with Russia and therefore state of economic peril,the concern that we should have is that there are so many negative shocks coming from the war, sanctions, uncertainty, that the economy is going to slow down even without raising rates.

Meanwhile, over in the US of A... the Federal Reserve recently began shrinking its massive balance sheet, unwinding trillions of dollars worth of bond purchases that it started making during the depths effort to offset the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. It’s not the first time that the Fed has undertaken ‘quantitative tightening,’ as the process is called. But this time around is different. 

The central bank is withdrawing stimulus at an unprecedented speed. The big question for markets now is what the impact of this liquidity withdrawal will actually be, and whether differences in the size and composition of the Fed’s more recent market operations make this bout of ‘QT’ different to previous episodes. 

So, those are troubles that beset countries that are far away from us, correct? 

What's it to do with us over here in Asia? 

What does all this fears indicate?

Two words...Money Liquidity / or a Repo Market crisis.

A repurchase agreement (repo) is a form of short-term borrowing for dealers in government securities. In the case of a repo, a dealer sells government securities to investors, usually on an overnight basis, and buys them back the following day at a slightly higher price. The difference between the selling and purchasing price of the security is the repo rate.

In short, Business/Trade needs cash. 

Banks provide cash. 

So, what happens when banks are low on cash because of increased interest rate hikes by European Central Bank trying to reduce Inflation? 

You see, When we need cash , we go to banks to meet our financing needs. When banks need cash, they borrow money on the repo market.

● What is the average leverage ratio for banks?

In banking, a common ratio is 95:5 (and that can be before off-balance sheet exposures are taken into account). Meaning they take your savings, govt bond purchases, securitised assets we put as collateral for loans as pajak for cash in the repo market between banks. 

A repurchase agreement, also known as a repo, RP, or sale and repurchase agreement, is a form of short-term borrowing, mainly in government securities. The dealer sells the underlying security to investors and, by agreement between the two parties, buys them back shortly afterwards, usually the following day, at a slightly higher price.

These days, the repo market is an important source of funds for large financial institutions in the non-depository banking sector, which has grown to rival the traditional depository banking sector in size. 

Large institutional investors such as money market mutual funds lend money to financial institutions such as investment banks, either in exchange for (or secured by) collateral, such as Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities held by the borrower financial institutions. 

An estimated $1 trillion per day in collateral value is transacted in the U.S. repo markets...okay, so far, so good..... so what is the problem?

The problem is the Eurozone banks balance sheet leverage ratio is getting too big. If it gets so big that they can't carry it  forward anymore, the whole global market is in danger of contagion ...ie collapsing at some point and those fears spills over and causes another Global Financial Crisis.

What is balance sheet leverage?

Balance Sheet Leverage Ratio means, as of any day, the ratio of Consolidated Total Liabilities as of such day to Consolidated Gross Asset Value as of such day. 

In other words, a Balance Sheet Leverage Ratio means, at any date of determination thereof, the ratio of (a) Consolidated Total Liabilities to (b) Consolidated Net Worth.

● What is a good balance sheet leverage ratio?

Leverage in the context of investments simply means borrowing capital for an investment, and expecting the profits to be amplified. A figure of 0.5 or less is ideal. 

In other words, no more than half of the company's assets should be financed by debt. 

In reality, many investors tolerate significantly higher ratios.

In summary:

Effectively, what we are seeing today in the West is the US govt's interest rate fiscal policy tightening is selfish acts of trying to suppress the INFLATION their own money printing folly created which has cascaded into real govt shaking crisis for the rest of the world.