Gunabalan's musing and tirades circa November 2024

 19/11, 10:33] 

As i sit here in my desk with the windows open and feeling the wisps of morning air bring both chillness and warm sunlight of the mid morning cloudy day streaming into my room, i look around me at the various toys gathered around me that enables me to not only verbally communicate with my loved ones half way across the world ( time zone permitting) but also to visualise and play games with my grandkids in their room across the chasm of oceans that separate us ....such is the power and wonder of tech today; with almost no cost. 

The stuff we can entertain ourselves with and that is commercialised through shopping apps knows no border, no boundaries and it seems no limitation. I could today if i so wish participate in a bet on a horse race in Hong Kong whilst perusing books inside the bodlean library in UK while still in my room here in Asia using augmented reality and wifi.

The world is changing and yet it is not visible to most .....because we still can choose to participate or not in this new world in front of us.....and there in lies the catch. In our comfort zones the world as we knew it can still exist ( within safe parameters that we choose) but out there in the big bad world where genocides, wars and sanctions rule, the very structures of society as we know it is being rewritten, codified and applied.

It is in my personal opinion that We (all those aged 40 and above) are not yet aware nor accustomed to the coming turbulence and chaotic world in front of us caused by the rise of technology lead by quantum computing and artificial intelligence. 

My mind is keenly aware of its own limitations and weakness but in awe of how that weakness and limitations are complemented by the augmented reality and intelligence of machines available for purchase through shoppee and amazon today.

I say so because as i extrapolate in my minds eye the current breakthroughs and manifestations of technology which are leading to a cohesive human & machine combination, i see a future that is vastly unrecognisable and maybe a little frightening.

The interface between human biology and machine augmented reality is here and it is awesome ( today) but imagine the scenario 25 years down the road.

Its like this....what if the current tech specs available today was created 50 years earlier?

How would we have interacted with the world that was tech laden as today that started  50 years ago and where would we be today in terms of computing power and commercialised tech?

What makes this period different ( the coming chaos through change) is that the rate of technological advance is unlike anything we’ve seen before. It will take us by surprise, no matter how much we prepare for it.We tend to think linearly — when we project into the future, we imagine that in five years things around us will be more or less as different as today is compared to five years ago.

But a number of technologies are advancing exponentially — from artificial intelligence to robotics and additive manufacturing (3D printing) to synthetic biology — these will fundamentally change individual lives and societies.

In short, individually, we who are now between 40 years of age onwards may have been lucky to have been given this respite from superior tech invading our every facet of life as we were growing up; because one particular facet of new tech that is almost universal is CHANGE....and that is not always for the better.

Now imagine this example below of how not all change is better for the individual who likes the comfort zone....

Global development indicators are continuously improving — extreme poverty, undernourishment and maternal mortality are falling, while access to education and clean water is increasing. And all these have been through human intervention and policy  ( in our past) but imagine a future where Ai and Ar combined with robotics becomes a better version of a human than we ever could be. Imagine what all these super brilliant and augmented machines can do once allowed to administer and create to streamline and facilitate a better, more efficient society and world ...

We know what we have done in the past by policy and globalised commerce, we can see the results today, which, while not nearly as fast as it should have been, has been significant progress just in the past 25 years and it should continue in future...and in a way it is good as it allow humans to acclimitise to the changes slowly. But at the same time, income inequality has been rising. 

Economic inequality within countries continue to increase and unless there is much fairer taxation and wealth redistribution, increased social tensions and political instability is always the result....such is the curse of human corruption, greed and ego....hint : ketuanan policies .

But soon, with Ai technology it will probably make it affordable ( or free) for more people to have the essentials, to force for accountability, and transparency and knowledge is no longer gate-kept thus creating more participation, innovations, commerce and general rise in income and lives.

Conversely ,it will also create a new social class that will replace today’s super-rich — think personal air mobility travel and even 3D printed organ replacements. Unthinkable just a recade ago but is available today...for the right price.

A world with a new class of “super-haves” will ( again) create resentment and political instability, unless governments and businesses finally decide to act more responsibly – by reducing harmful austerity measures, tax evasion and unaccountable business practices like monopolies and duopolies must end, and quickly to level the playing field...starting with ensuring the masses who are left behind can also lead meaningful, dignified lives.

If not, inequality between countries is also likely to increase. Technological development could also indirectly lead to new conflicts and political unrest as we can see with Russia, China and Israel, US. In the past, the path to development for many countries in the 20th century had been through industrialization — typically starting with labour intensive manufacturing, followed by higher end export industries. With automation and additive manufacturing, a western-based company could bring back the manufacturing of its products to the west with much less, if any, impact on costs. There will be political pressure, and possibly incentives, to bring manufacturing back to the wealthiest countries as pressure on jobs increases — even if these new factories have fewer jobs for humans. 

If this was to happen at a large scale, the changes to the structure of the global economy and global trade would have profound effects on developing countries like us, which will have to find new paths to development and wealth; failing to do so will lead to economic and political instability. We can even see this today with Trump promising to sanction and repress China once he is in office. 

China is unable to save Malaysia which is corrupt and pro-Bumiputera - UM Researcher

 By Editor 07/21/2024

KUALA LUMPUR: An Associate Researcher at the Institute of China Studies, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, Universiti Malaya described Malaysia as being in a dire situation for failing to end pro-Bumiputera policies and rampant corruption.

Writing in the South China Morning Post in conjunction with the 50th anniversary of China-Malaysia relations, *Dr Michael Tai* described China's investment will not cure the cancer that plagues Malaysia's economy.

_"Malaysia's problems stem from corruption and poor governance, which are closely related to race-based privilege. Outsiders are in no position to fix it._

_"Malaysia's progress continues to be hindered by affirmative action programs that give priority to the Malay majority over the Chinese and Indian minorities,"_

added the Universiti Malaya Associate Researcher.

_"This policy was supposed to end after 20 years but was replaced by the National Development Policy, which maintains the privileges of the bumiputra; the Malays regard it as a right,"_ added Tai.

*According to Tai, the pro-Bumiputera policy has also created an extreme state of corruption.*

_"Systemic corruption is so entrenched, that it is almost impossible to eradicate it without eradicating race-based privilege. In the last five years, *the government has lost approximately US$59 billion to corruption*, which Anwar considers a "major cancer" that weakens the economy, erodes morale,  and reduce confidence,"_ Tai wrote again.

He also cited former Minister's view Trade and Industry (MITI), *Tan Sri Rafidah Aziz who expressed regret at the "puzzling" loss of integrity so that no sector of society was spared from the "toxic abuse of power."*

Tai also questioned the dependence on China which may not be as good as expected.

_"Malaysia strives to capture that part of the supply chain is said to have left China due to the trade war.  But that hope may be in vain.  Although China has moved up the value chain, it remains competitive in low-value sectors.  It enjoys many advantages in terms of size, productivity, infrastructure quality, and industrial ecosystem._

According to Tai again, _it is very difficult to compete with Chinese factories in terms of speed, cost, or quality, and it does not make sense for them to outsource or move to countries that lack skilled manpower.  Chinese entrepreneurs go where they can make a reasonable profit._

For Tai, *the problem of Malaysia's nation building stems from poor governance and outsiders are not in a position to improve it.*

Dr Michael Tai menyifatkan pelaburan China tidak akan menyembuhkan kanser yang melanda ekonomi Malaysia.

Perspectives in motion...

 Malaysian Rating Corporation projects Malaysia’s debt to drop below 60pc of GDP by 2028 https://www.malaymail.com/news/money/2024/08/26/malaysian-rating-corporation-projects-malaysias-debt-to-drop-below-60pc-of-gdp-by-2028/148245

[27/08, 20:53] Tirath: Interesting.

Source of revenue:

GDP growth so debt % will drop unless Madani borrows more than essential, like other PMs.

Increased income for LHDN, Kastam (SST or GST, import duties and surtax) and Licensing.

No more subsidies except for extremely small select group.

Huge cut in expenditure due to hiving of health care costs to the individual via medical insurance schemes.

Welcome Developed Nation status.

Although who will be leading the next Madani government, Muslim Brotherhood members, like Hadi Awang and gang?

[27/08, 20:57] Guna balan: Until it is evident...we must not assume.

[27/08, 21:18] Tirath: I was discussing the assumptions for the forecast of 60% of GDP debt ratio.

Most of the time the results are forecasted but neither the assumptions are shared or later on during the quarters results announcement is the comparison shared.

Research may help to locate the basis.

As these rating agencies and others make huge profits on these forecast reports, the details are generally considered private.

[27/08, 21:28] Guna balan: many empirical data sets used but yes, the different houses do not reveal their chosen assumption. 

basically, rating agencies use a ‘point-in-time’ strategy, adapting to borrower countries’ current conditions in a manner that is constantly updated.

another perspective is using data sets submitted to world bank + central banks quarterly report

[27/08, 21:31] Guna balan: if nominal data sets used by students of econs are anything like theirs, then reliance on paid Financial statements, cash flow analysis, debt ratios, profitability measurements, and liquidity measures are a few examples of these indicators.

[27/08, 21:37] Guna balan: if your question pertains to what the determinants of country risk ratings be?, then that includes how safe madani govt is...

Country risk may be prompted by a number of country-specific factors or events. 

Him doing shenanigans with Zahid and playing good cop/ bad cop is a good example.

There are three major components of country risk, namely economic, financial and political risk.

Kalau the fella can show the country risk /literature / spiel holds strong, that means to the ratings house the country economic, financial and political risks are 👍🏼 ..basically it's autocratic rule to bring stability.

[27/08, 21:38] Guna balan: ie Razak's walk softly but carry big stick methodology

[28/08, 00:08] Tirath: Looks like supporting Palestine and importing Palestinians into Malaysia won very good marks for the Madani government. He should do by importing more Palestinians and Islamic Brotherhood members.

[28/08, 09:13] Guna balan: Jangaan takut....have spoken to some, ages ago.

They most definately prefer western countries to another muslim run country...unless they got no choice and its a plan B till they get their visa to either ozzie or nessie

[28/08, 09:14] Guna balan: Even indians and Sri lankans prefer other places except if constrained by other issues...

[28/08, 09:14] Guna balan: Arabs even worse...they don't even like the malays! They consider themselves as the real tuan and cannot adhere to malays ketuanan policy!

[28/08, 09:57] Guna balan: So, chill.

As an addendum, allow me to add that this again is a repeat of events that happened in the past, specifically the esrly 1990s.

At that time i remember the former slavic nations were at war as well and the religious war between the breakaway factions of croats and bosniaks became bad.

Anwar & mahathir did the same thing even then and brought entire communities of muslim bosniak's to m'sia.

They were mainly in Serdang area. Today, there is but a few left in malaydia as most recuperated here but moved on their own to either western europe or  ozzie land.

[28/08, 09:58] Guna balan: Jadi, perspectives are important. This people may not necessarily want to stay here!

[28/08, 10:00] Guna balan: I repeatedly said...i do not see the script changing.

What was, is & will be.

[28/08, 10:05] Guna balan: So, indirectly malaysian economic sustainability in late 80s to 2010 is up on our platter.

Comprehend that politically, economically and structural fundamentally in justice & suddenly you will understand what is next coming.

It is boom time, baby.

Travels & Tyrannies of Time 2

 

Travels & Tyrannies of Time